Wednesday, July 29, 2009
July 29 - A Big Day of Trades
1) The Indians send Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies for four of their top ten minor league prospects - pitcher Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald, catcher Lou Marson and pitcher Jason Knapp. Lee, the 2008 Cy Young award winner, was 7-9 this season with a very solid 3.14 ERA inn 22 starts. He immediately gives the Phillies a great 1-2 punch with Cole Hamels. Lee has an $8 million option for next year, which the Phillies will most certainly pick up (considering Oliver Perez makes $12 million a year, Lee is a bargain at $8 million). Francisco has 10 HRs, 33 RBIs and 13 steals and was starting most games for the Indians. He will now be the fourth outfielder.
Carrasco, signed by Philadelphia as a free agent in 2003, was the Phillies #2 prospect. He was struggling at Triple A this season with a 5.18 ERA. However he has 112 strikeouts in 114 innings and his strikeouts to walks ratio is a very good 3-1 ratio (only 38 walks in 114 innings). Donald, drafted in the third round of 2006, recently just came back from surgery on his knee. He has struggled as well at Triple A, hitting only .230. However, when healthy, in his last two seasons at A and AA ball, he hit over .300. Marson, a fourth round pick in 2004, has terrific patience at the plate, having drawn 239 walks in his major league career. He can hit for average but not for power. Knapp, a former second round pick in 2008, is currently on the minor league DL with shoulder fatigue. However Knapp has struck out 111 batters in 85 innings in A ball this season with a strikeouts to walks ratio of nearly 3 to 1.
Analysis - Fair deal for both sides with the advantage going to the Phillies. The Phillies get their ace without giving up their two top prospects, Kyle Drabek or Dominic Brown (or even Michael Taylor, their top prospect closest to being ready). They also get a good fourth outfielder in Francisco who gives them speed off the bench, something they are really lacking. The Phillies now can be considered right along with the Dodgers as the team to beat in the National League.
The Indians get a good deal of talent. Each of the four players they received were listed by Baseball America as being one of the Phillies Top Ten prospects. Carrasco and Marson are the closest to helping right now, especially if the Indians trade Victor Martinez today as rumored. Knapp gives them a pitching prospect so desperately needed considering all the pitching prospect failures they have. And if Donald regains his hitting stroke at Triple A, then the Indians may have their second baseman of the future.
2) The Pirates send shortstop Jack Wilson and pitcher Ian Snell to the Mariners for shortstop Ronny Cedeno, first baseman/catcher Jeff Clement and pitching prospects Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock. Wilson, who could be a free agent after this season (his contract has a club option of $8 million for 2010), was hitting .267 with four homers and 31 RBIs. But Wilson has been always known for his defense. Snell, who had his best year in 2007 ( 3.76 ERA in 208 innings with 177 innings), has struggled since. So much so that he was sent down to Triple A, where he was downright dominant (0.96 ERA and 47 Ks in 37 innings).
Clement, a former first round draft pick, was hitting .288 at Tacoma with 14 HRs, 33 doubles and 68 RBIs. With Seattle last season, Clement struggled in 200 plus at bats, hitting .227 with 5 HRs and 23 RBIs. As for Cedeno, at the plate, he makes Jack Wilson look like Derek Jeter. This season, Cedeno was hitting .170 with 5 HRs and 17 RBIs in 182 at bats. He is a lifetime .238 hitter. Pribanic, a third round pick in 2008, had a 3.21 ERA at Class A Clinton. Lorin, a fifth round pick in 2008 and a teammate of Pribanic's at Clinton, has an ERA of 2.44 and is averaging a strikeout per inning in 88 innings. Adcock, a fifth round pick in 2006, has struggled at high A High Desert with a 5.21 ERA and 4.5 walks per 9 innings (he does have 260 strikeouts in 320 minor league innings).
Trade Analysis - Well, lo and behold. Two days after I wrote at length about Neal Huntington's bad deals, Neal pulls off his first of two good trades of the day. This is the gem of the two. Wilson is a great fielder with some pop. His one home run is not really indicative of Wilson, who averaged nearly 10 HRs a season the past five seasons. Still, a relatively light hitting Wilson is not worth $8 million for next season. Snell wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh with an attitude that often didn't match his stats. He actually requested his demotion to Triple A, noting that there was "Too much negativity." He was due to make $4.25 million next season and that's too much to pay a Triple A pitcher who wants no part of the Pirates. The Pirates should immediately call Clement up and let him play. He definitely has 20 HR potential with the short but high porch at PNC. Lorin and Pribanic look to be future middle starting rotation guys, so the Pirates did very well here.
Seattle made this trade thinking they still have a chance for the wild card being five and a half games behind the Red Sox coming into Thursday's play (they are not out of the AL West but have a bigger deficit to overcome being seven and a half games behind the Angels). However, there had been talk that Seattle was going to trade Jarrod Washburn (and they still might). Wilson will give them the everyday shortstop they need for the next year and two months. But again, he is not worth $8 million. Snell is an absolute wild card. He might pitched to his potential like he did in 2007. Or he might implode again and be the 2009 pitcher with a 5.32 ERA who for his career has averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings. Clement never had a chance to show his potential while with the Mariners and that might come back to haunt them.
3) The Pirates send Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for pitching prospect Tim Alderson. Sanchez, the 2006 NL batting champ and a lifetime .300 hitter, was hitting .296 this season Sanchez plugs an immediate hole for the Giants at second base and gives them a top of the order hitter so desperately needed on a team that is next to last in the National League in runs scored. The doubles machine should find the gaps at AT&T Park to his liking.
In Alderson, the Pirates get the #62 rated prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. Alderson, the 22nd overall pick in the 2007 draft, has pitched well since promoted to Double A. Alderson has a 6-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a strikeouts to walks ratio of 3 to 1. The Baseball Cube's scouting report gives Alderson 100 percent efficiency rating, a 97 control rating and a 84 K rating. Pretty damn good.
Trade Analysis - Good for both sides. Right now, Giants GM Brian Sabean is going for this year. Sanchez gives the Giants a legitimate two hitter and solid play in the field. He will make $8 million next year which I guess is fine, but here's another team that could have got Orlando Hudson a lot cheaper. Sabean must also think that with Lincecum, Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, he could afford to trade Alderson. But with Zito and Randy Johnson on their way out, trading Alderson could be a huge mistake if the Giants don't make the playoffs.
As for the Pirates, this is two for two for Huntington on the day. Alderson is a legitimate top of the rotation pitching prospect, something they desperately needed. It's clearly evident that Huntington thought that his farm system and team needed to be completely rebuilt. With the trades of Sanchez and Wilson, Huntington has traded 5/8 of his starting lineup from the beginning of this season (Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Adam LaRoche, Wilson and Sanchez).
4) Mariners trade outfielder Vladimir Balentien to the Reds for pitcher Robert Manuel. Balentien was always a top prospect for the Mariners (was listed as the #5 prospect in 2008). However, he didn't get his 11 rating in contact from the Baseball Cube for nothing. In his two plus years playing for the Mariners, Balentien has struck out 122 times in 401 at bats, hitting .209. But he did have 12 homers during that time and he has a 97 rating on power. Meanwhile Manuel, an undrafted free agent, quietly has been one of the Reds best prospects, averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings with a strikeouts to walks ratio of more than 5 to 1 (yes, you read that right). He was the closer at Louisville for the Reds with 10 saves and a 2.70 ERA. He has pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings for the Reds
Analysis - Balentien wore out his welcome with the Mariners with his lack of contact. Thus he was designated for assignment in favor of Michael Saunders before the trade. That the Mariners got such a good pitcher like Manuel in return for him is a win win situation. The Reds, desperate for offense, hope to straighten Balentien out. Since they are short in the outfield, Balentien will get to play right away. Time will tell if the Reds can straighten Balentien out, but I give the advantage for now to the Mariners, who certainly could use the bullpen help.
5) From July 27 - The Indians trade Ryan Garko to the Giants for pitcher Scott Barnes. Garko, who had 90 RBIs last year in less than 500 at bats, was hitting .280 this season with 11 HRs and 39 RBIs in 246 at bats. Garko immediately becomes the everyday first baseman for the Giants. Barnes, the ninth rated prospect in the Giants system this season, is having a stellar year at Class High A San Jose with a 12-3 record, 2.85 ERA averaging a strikeout per inning in 98 innings.
Analysis - Again, the Giants trade a solid pitching prospect for an everyday bat. Sabean has certainly upgraded his offense with Garko and Sanchez. Has he mortgaged the future trading two solid pitching prospects in Alderson and Barnes. Again, its a matter of time, but Sabean had to do something with the current putrid state of the Giants offense. Will Garko and Sanchez make the difference we'll see.
For the Indians, its curious to see them trade a player who had 90 RBIs last season and is just arbitration eligible for the next three years. They could have signed him to a reasonable contract. But with Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta and others available to play first, including even Victor Martinez, Garko was expendable. Barnes gives the Indians another solid arm in the minors but he is at least two years away. Give the advantage to the Giants for getting a reasonably inexpensive every day bat here.
There is still a good amount of time left till the July 31 4:00 PM trade deadline. Roy Halladay, Victor Martinez, George Sherill among others are the big names being talked about. Something interesting usually happens but the past two days have been pretty eventful already.
Monday, July 27, 2009
The Curious Case of Neal Huntington
1) Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees in exchange for minor leaguers Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, and Dan McCutchen. Nady at the time was hitting .330 with 13 HRs and 57 RBIs in 327 at bats. He added 12 HRs and 40 RBIs in 227 ABs for the Yankees (giving him 25 HRs 97 RBIs in 554 ABs - very nice numbers). Marte at the time of the trade had a 3.47 ERA and averaged a strikeout per inning in 47 innings pitched. Marte would struggle with the Yankees the remainder of the year posting an ERA of 5.00. Nady and Marte have been hurt most of the 2009 season, Nady needing Tommy John surgery on his elbow.
As for the "booty" the Pirates received in return, the prize prospect was Jose Tabata, an outfielder with a questionable attitude and background. Tabata, 21, is repeating Double A ball again this year at Altoona, showing very little power (2 HRs and 13 doubles in 200 ABs) while hitting .290 with only six steals. McCutchen, a little old for a prospect at 26 (turns 27 in October), has been OK with Triple A Indianapolis with a 9-5 record with a 4.19 ERA and a ratio of 3-1 in strikeouts to walks. He was a 13th round pick of the Yankees back in 2006. Both
2) Jason Bay to the Red Sox, Manny Ramirez from the Sox to the Dodgers for Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris (Pirates picked up two players each from the Dodgers and the Red Sox). Bay, of course, was an All Star for the Pirates, having two 100+ RBI seasons. He would end up with 101 RBIs in 2008 with a combined 31 HRs for both the Pirates and the Red Sox and he is having a good year with 20 HRs and 72 RBIs. The return for Bay was not horrible, but not great either. Moss is hitting .254 with 5 HRs and 27 RBIs, while LaRoche is hitting .262 with 4 HRs and 37 RBIs. So Moss and LaRoche have 11 less HRs and 8 less RBIs combined than Bay. LaRoche is a former 39th round pick of the Dodgers while Moss was an eighth round pick of the Sox.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
The Good, the Bad and the Neal Huntington
There have been a few trades in major league baseball the last few days. They have a range of good, bad and ugly, or as I like to call it "The Good, The Bad and the Neal Huntington."
The Good - The A's trade star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Cardinals for third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen. The A's also threw in 1.5 million in cash in the deal.
The A's got two former first round picks in Wallace and Mortensen, who are in Triple A, and a former second round pick in Peterson who is in Double A. This is in exchange for an outfielder in Holliday who was hitting 286 with 11 homers and 54 RBIs but last season hit .321 with 25 HRs and 88 RBIs, and who is a free agent in two months and 1.5 million in cash.
The Cardinals got the star hitter that Tony LaRussa so desperately wanted to back up Albert Pujols with and Holliday responded with a four for five first night as the Cards pounded the Phillies. The lifetime .316 hitter will be very happy to be playing for a first place team and should see LOTS of good pitches to hit with Pujols in front of him.
However, the Cards did give up a lot for a player they will have for a little more than 2 months (3 months if they make the playoffs). Wallace is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball currently and his bat is ready for the major leagues. However, his glove is a question mark and he may end up at 1B for the A's. Mortensen is only spending his second year in the minors and is already at Triple A. He projects as a back end of the rotation starter. Peterson is an OBP machine who fits in with Billy Beane's ideal type of players. He is starting to hit for a little more power, as he has hit seven home runs this season as opposed to only one home run last season. But for Peterson, this is also his second year in the minors and the A's desperately need a leadoff hitter
But give Cardinals GM John Mozeliak credit for at least going for the brass ring. He knows with a starting staff of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainright and Joel Pineiro, his team probably has the best starting rotation in the NL Central. And now with Holliday to combine with Pujols and hopefully Ryan Ludwick resurging, the Cards are now the team to beat. Sometimes you have to give up a lot to get a lot. As for Billy Beane, he again proves how to get talent for talent.
The Bad - The Cardinals trade outfielder Chris Duncan to the Red Sox for shortstop Julio Lugo. Now the Cardinals needed a shortstop really bad with Khalil Greene's anxiety issues and Brendan Ryan not really a true shortstop. The question is will Lugo be the starting shortstop and are the Cardinals kicking in any salary? Lugo has 13.5 million left on his contract (not one of Theo Epstein's better moves).
The Boston Herald says that the Sox are going to be responsible for his contract, but does that mean the Cards are responsible for Duncan's $825,000? Who knows, but I find it hard to believe that Theo Epstein would pay for the entire remaining contract of Lugo plus the 2.5 million for LaRoche (see below), plus the the $825,000 for Duncan. Lugo by the way was hurt most of the season till recently, when the Red Sox designated him for assignment. He was hitting .284 with one home run in 37 games, so he still can play. Duncan was hitting .227 with 5 home runs and 32 RBIs and was sent to Triple A. Duncan will be strictly depth on a crowded Sox bench. You just wonder if the Cards could have just waited for Lugo to be released, which is what most people thought and then sign him.
The Neal Huntington - The Pirates trade Adam LaRoche for shorstop Argenis Diaz and pitcher Hunter Strickland. The Red Sox will assume the rest of LaRoche's salary for the season, 2.5 million.
The Pirates got a .253 hitting Double A shortstop who was signed as a free agent and a 18th round pick pitcher in Single A ball for a first baseman who was hitting .247 with 12 HRs and 40 RBIs (last season .270 25 HRs and 85 RBIs), who was a free agent at the end of the season, but historically has a .900 OPS the second half of the season and also averaged 26 HRs and 88 RBIs the last three seasons.
The A's got two players who were former first round picks and another player who was a former second round pick for Holliday. Huntington couldn't even get a player considered in the top ten prospects for the Boston Red Sox in his deal. The Holliday deal only reinforces how bad this deal was for the Pirates. In fact, the #11 prospect for the Sox, Yamaico Navarro was immediately moved up to Portland to replace Diaz. Somehow I don't think the Sox are going to miss Diaz.
That's just real awesome work by Huntington. Nice to see he is continuing in the tradition of inept Pirate GMs such as Dave Littlefield and Cam Bonifay. In fact, I have been so impressed by the ineptitude of Huntington, he will be featured in my next article entitled "The Curious Case of Neal Huntington".