Wednesday, July 29, 2009
July 29 - A Big Day of Trades
1) The Indians send Cliff Lee and Ben Francisco to the Phillies for four of their top ten minor league prospects - pitcher Carlos Carrasco, shortstop Jason Donald, catcher Lou Marson and pitcher Jason Knapp. Lee, the 2008 Cy Young award winner, was 7-9 this season with a very solid 3.14 ERA inn 22 starts. He immediately gives the Phillies a great 1-2 punch with Cole Hamels. Lee has an $8 million option for next year, which the Phillies will most certainly pick up (considering Oliver Perez makes $12 million a year, Lee is a bargain at $8 million). Francisco has 10 HRs, 33 RBIs and 13 steals and was starting most games for the Indians. He will now be the fourth outfielder.
Carrasco, signed by Philadelphia as a free agent in 2003, was the Phillies #2 prospect. He was struggling at Triple A this season with a 5.18 ERA. However he has 112 strikeouts in 114 innings and his strikeouts to walks ratio is a very good 3-1 ratio (only 38 walks in 114 innings). Donald, drafted in the third round of 2006, recently just came back from surgery on his knee. He has struggled as well at Triple A, hitting only .230. However, when healthy, in his last two seasons at A and AA ball, he hit over .300. Marson, a fourth round pick in 2004, has terrific patience at the plate, having drawn 239 walks in his major league career. He can hit for average but not for power. Knapp, a former second round pick in 2008, is currently on the minor league DL with shoulder fatigue. However Knapp has struck out 111 batters in 85 innings in A ball this season with a strikeouts to walks ratio of nearly 3 to 1.
Analysis - Fair deal for both sides with the advantage going to the Phillies. The Phillies get their ace without giving up their two top prospects, Kyle Drabek or Dominic Brown (or even Michael Taylor, their top prospect closest to being ready). They also get a good fourth outfielder in Francisco who gives them speed off the bench, something they are really lacking. The Phillies now can be considered right along with the Dodgers as the team to beat in the National League.
The Indians get a good deal of talent. Each of the four players they received were listed by Baseball America as being one of the Phillies Top Ten prospects. Carrasco and Marson are the closest to helping right now, especially if the Indians trade Victor Martinez today as rumored. Knapp gives them a pitching prospect so desperately needed considering all the pitching prospect failures they have. And if Donald regains his hitting stroke at Triple A, then the Indians may have their second baseman of the future.
2) The Pirates send shortstop Jack Wilson and pitcher Ian Snell to the Mariners for shortstop Ronny Cedeno, first baseman/catcher Jeff Clement and pitching prospects Aaron Pribanic, Brett Lorin and Nathan Adcock. Wilson, who could be a free agent after this season (his contract has a club option of $8 million for 2010), was hitting .267 with four homers and 31 RBIs. But Wilson has been always known for his defense. Snell, who had his best year in 2007 ( 3.76 ERA in 208 innings with 177 innings), has struggled since. So much so that he was sent down to Triple A, where he was downright dominant (0.96 ERA and 47 Ks in 37 innings).
Clement, a former first round draft pick, was hitting .288 at Tacoma with 14 HRs, 33 doubles and 68 RBIs. With Seattle last season, Clement struggled in 200 plus at bats, hitting .227 with 5 HRs and 23 RBIs. As for Cedeno, at the plate, he makes Jack Wilson look like Derek Jeter. This season, Cedeno was hitting .170 with 5 HRs and 17 RBIs in 182 at bats. He is a lifetime .238 hitter. Pribanic, a third round pick in 2008, had a 3.21 ERA at Class A Clinton. Lorin, a fifth round pick in 2008 and a teammate of Pribanic's at Clinton, has an ERA of 2.44 and is averaging a strikeout per inning in 88 innings. Adcock, a fifth round pick in 2006, has struggled at high A High Desert with a 5.21 ERA and 4.5 walks per 9 innings (he does have 260 strikeouts in 320 minor league innings).
Trade Analysis - Well, lo and behold. Two days after I wrote at length about Neal Huntington's bad deals, Neal pulls off his first of two good trades of the day. This is the gem of the two. Wilson is a great fielder with some pop. His one home run is not really indicative of Wilson, who averaged nearly 10 HRs a season the past five seasons. Still, a relatively light hitting Wilson is not worth $8 million for next season. Snell wore out his welcome in Pittsburgh with an attitude that often didn't match his stats. He actually requested his demotion to Triple A, noting that there was "Too much negativity." He was due to make $4.25 million next season and that's too much to pay a Triple A pitcher who wants no part of the Pirates. The Pirates should immediately call Clement up and let him play. He definitely has 20 HR potential with the short but high porch at PNC. Lorin and Pribanic look to be future middle starting rotation guys, so the Pirates did very well here.
Seattle made this trade thinking they still have a chance for the wild card being five and a half games behind the Red Sox coming into Thursday's play (they are not out of the AL West but have a bigger deficit to overcome being seven and a half games behind the Angels). However, there had been talk that Seattle was going to trade Jarrod Washburn (and they still might). Wilson will give them the everyday shortstop they need for the next year and two months. But again, he is not worth $8 million. Snell is an absolute wild card. He might pitched to his potential like he did in 2007. Or he might implode again and be the 2009 pitcher with a 5.32 ERA who for his career has averaged 4.5 walks per nine innings. Clement never had a chance to show his potential while with the Mariners and that might come back to haunt them.
3) The Pirates send Freddy Sanchez to the Giants for pitching prospect Tim Alderson. Sanchez, the 2006 NL batting champ and a lifetime .300 hitter, was hitting .296 this season Sanchez plugs an immediate hole for the Giants at second base and gives them a top of the order hitter so desperately needed on a team that is next to last in the National League in runs scored. The doubles machine should find the gaps at AT&T Park to his liking.
In Alderson, the Pirates get the #62 rated prospect in baseball by Baseball Prospectus. Alderson, the 22nd overall pick in the 2007 draft, has pitched well since promoted to Double A. Alderson has a 6-1 record with a 3.47 ERA and a strikeouts to walks ratio of 3 to 1. The Baseball Cube's scouting report gives Alderson 100 percent efficiency rating, a 97 control rating and a 84 K rating. Pretty damn good.
Trade Analysis - Good for both sides. Right now, Giants GM Brian Sabean is going for this year. Sanchez gives the Giants a legitimate two hitter and solid play in the field. He will make $8 million next year which I guess is fine, but here's another team that could have got Orlando Hudson a lot cheaper. Sabean must also think that with Lincecum, Cain and Jonathan Sanchez, he could afford to trade Alderson. But with Zito and Randy Johnson on their way out, trading Alderson could be a huge mistake if the Giants don't make the playoffs.
As for the Pirates, this is two for two for Huntington on the day. Alderson is a legitimate top of the rotation pitching prospect, something they desperately needed. It's clearly evident that Huntington thought that his farm system and team needed to be completely rebuilt. With the trades of Sanchez and Wilson, Huntington has traded 5/8 of his starting lineup from the beginning of this season (Nate McLouth, Nyjer Morgan, Adam LaRoche, Wilson and Sanchez).
4) Mariners trade outfielder Vladimir Balentien to the Reds for pitcher Robert Manuel. Balentien was always a top prospect for the Mariners (was listed as the #5 prospect in 2008). However, he didn't get his 11 rating in contact from the Baseball Cube for nothing. In his two plus years playing for the Mariners, Balentien has struck out 122 times in 401 at bats, hitting .209. But he did have 12 homers during that time and he has a 97 rating on power. Meanwhile Manuel, an undrafted free agent, quietly has been one of the Reds best prospects, averaging 8.5 strikeouts per nine innings with a strikeouts to walks ratio of more than 5 to 1 (yes, you read that right). He was the closer at Louisville for the Reds with 10 saves and a 2.70 ERA. He has pitched 4 1/3 scoreless innings for the Reds
Analysis - Balentien wore out his welcome with the Mariners with his lack of contact. Thus he was designated for assignment in favor of Michael Saunders before the trade. That the Mariners got such a good pitcher like Manuel in return for him is a win win situation. The Reds, desperate for offense, hope to straighten Balentien out. Since they are short in the outfield, Balentien will get to play right away. Time will tell if the Reds can straighten Balentien out, but I give the advantage for now to the Mariners, who certainly could use the bullpen help.
5) From July 27 - The Indians trade Ryan Garko to the Giants for pitcher Scott Barnes. Garko, who had 90 RBIs last year in less than 500 at bats, was hitting .280 this season with 11 HRs and 39 RBIs in 246 at bats. Garko immediately becomes the everyday first baseman for the Giants. Barnes, the ninth rated prospect in the Giants system this season, is having a stellar year at Class High A San Jose with a 12-3 record, 2.85 ERA averaging a strikeout per inning in 98 innings.
Analysis - Again, the Giants trade a solid pitching prospect for an everyday bat. Sabean has certainly upgraded his offense with Garko and Sanchez. Has he mortgaged the future trading two solid pitching prospects in Alderson and Barnes. Again, its a matter of time, but Sabean had to do something with the current putrid state of the Giants offense. Will Garko and Sanchez make the difference we'll see.
For the Indians, its curious to see them trade a player who had 90 RBIs last season and is just arbitration eligible for the next three years. They could have signed him to a reasonable contract. But with Andy Marte, Matt LaPorta and others available to play first, including even Victor Martinez, Garko was expendable. Barnes gives the Indians another solid arm in the minors but he is at least two years away. Give the advantage to the Giants for getting a reasonably inexpensive every day bat here.
There is still a good amount of time left till the July 31 4:00 PM trade deadline. Roy Halladay, Victor Martinez, George Sherill among others are the big names being talked about. Something interesting usually happens but the past two days have been pretty eventful already.
Monday, July 27, 2009
The Curious Case of Neal Huntington
1) Xavier Nady and Damaso Marte to the New York Yankees in exchange for minor leaguers Jose Tabata, Jeff Karstens, Ross Ohlendorf, and Dan McCutchen. Nady at the time was hitting .330 with 13 HRs and 57 RBIs in 327 at bats. He added 12 HRs and 40 RBIs in 227 ABs for the Yankees (giving him 25 HRs 97 RBIs in 554 ABs - very nice numbers). Marte at the time of the trade had a 3.47 ERA and averaged a strikeout per inning in 47 innings pitched. Marte would struggle with the Yankees the remainder of the year posting an ERA of 5.00. Nady and Marte have been hurt most of the 2009 season, Nady needing Tommy John surgery on his elbow.
As for the "booty" the Pirates received in return, the prize prospect was Jose Tabata, an outfielder with a questionable attitude and background. Tabata, 21, is repeating Double A ball again this year at Altoona, showing very little power (2 HRs and 13 doubles in 200 ABs) while hitting .290 with only six steals. McCutchen, a little old for a prospect at 26 (turns 27 in October), has been OK with Triple A Indianapolis with a 9-5 record with a 4.19 ERA and a ratio of 3-1 in strikeouts to walks. He was a 13th round pick of the Yankees back in 2006. Both
2) Jason Bay to the Red Sox, Manny Ramirez from the Sox to the Dodgers for Brandon Moss, Andy LaRoche, Craig Hansen and Bryan Morris (Pirates picked up two players each from the Dodgers and the Red Sox). Bay, of course, was an All Star for the Pirates, having two 100+ RBI seasons. He would end up with 101 RBIs in 2008 with a combined 31 HRs for both the Pirates and the Red Sox and he is having a good year with 20 HRs and 72 RBIs. The return for Bay was not horrible, but not great either. Moss is hitting .254 with 5 HRs and 27 RBIs, while LaRoche is hitting .262 with 4 HRs and 37 RBIs. So Moss and LaRoche have 11 less HRs and 8 less RBIs combined than Bay. LaRoche is a former 39th round pick of the Dodgers while Moss was an eighth round pick of the Sox.
Saturday, July 25, 2009
The Good, the Bad and the Neal Huntington
There have been a few trades in major league baseball the last few days. They have a range of good, bad and ugly, or as I like to call it "The Good, The Bad and the Neal Huntington."
The Good - The A's trade star outfielder Matt Holliday to the Cardinals for third baseman Brett Wallace, outfielder Shane Peterson and right-handed pitcher Clayton Mortensen. The A's also threw in 1.5 million in cash in the deal.
The A's got two former first round picks in Wallace and Mortensen, who are in Triple A, and a former second round pick in Peterson who is in Double A. This is in exchange for an outfielder in Holliday who was hitting 286 with 11 homers and 54 RBIs but last season hit .321 with 25 HRs and 88 RBIs, and who is a free agent in two months and 1.5 million in cash.
The Cardinals got the star hitter that Tony LaRussa so desperately wanted to back up Albert Pujols with and Holliday responded with a four for five first night as the Cards pounded the Phillies. The lifetime .316 hitter will be very happy to be playing for a first place team and should see LOTS of good pitches to hit with Pujols in front of him.
However, the Cards did give up a lot for a player they will have for a little more than 2 months (3 months if they make the playoffs). Wallace is one of the top 10 prospects in baseball currently and his bat is ready for the major leagues. However, his glove is a question mark and he may end up at 1B for the A's. Mortensen is only spending his second year in the minors and is already at Triple A. He projects as a back end of the rotation starter. Peterson is an OBP machine who fits in with Billy Beane's ideal type of players. He is starting to hit for a little more power, as he has hit seven home runs this season as opposed to only one home run last season. But for Peterson, this is also his second year in the minors and the A's desperately need a leadoff hitter
But give Cardinals GM John Mozeliak credit for at least going for the brass ring. He knows with a starting staff of Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainright and Joel Pineiro, his team probably has the best starting rotation in the NL Central. And now with Holliday to combine with Pujols and hopefully Ryan Ludwick resurging, the Cards are now the team to beat. Sometimes you have to give up a lot to get a lot. As for Billy Beane, he again proves how to get talent for talent.
The Bad - The Cardinals trade outfielder Chris Duncan to the Red Sox for shortstop Julio Lugo. Now the Cardinals needed a shortstop really bad with Khalil Greene's anxiety issues and Brendan Ryan not really a true shortstop. The question is will Lugo be the starting shortstop and are the Cardinals kicking in any salary? Lugo has 13.5 million left on his contract (not one of Theo Epstein's better moves).
The Boston Herald says that the Sox are going to be responsible for his contract, but does that mean the Cards are responsible for Duncan's $825,000? Who knows, but I find it hard to believe that Theo Epstein would pay for the entire remaining contract of Lugo plus the 2.5 million for LaRoche (see below), plus the the $825,000 for Duncan. Lugo by the way was hurt most of the season till recently, when the Red Sox designated him for assignment. He was hitting .284 with one home run in 37 games, so he still can play. Duncan was hitting .227 with 5 home runs and 32 RBIs and was sent to Triple A. Duncan will be strictly depth on a crowded Sox bench. You just wonder if the Cards could have just waited for Lugo to be released, which is what most people thought and then sign him.
The Neal Huntington - The Pirates trade Adam LaRoche for shorstop Argenis Diaz and pitcher Hunter Strickland. The Red Sox will assume the rest of LaRoche's salary for the season, 2.5 million.
The Pirates got a .253 hitting Double A shortstop who was signed as a free agent and a 18th round pick pitcher in Single A ball for a first baseman who was hitting .247 with 12 HRs and 40 RBIs (last season .270 25 HRs and 85 RBIs), who was a free agent at the end of the season, but historically has a .900 OPS the second half of the season and also averaged 26 HRs and 88 RBIs the last three seasons.
The A's got two players who were former first round picks and another player who was a former second round pick for Holliday. Huntington couldn't even get a player considered in the top ten prospects for the Boston Red Sox in his deal. The Holliday deal only reinforces how bad this deal was for the Pirates. In fact, the #11 prospect for the Sox, Yamaico Navarro was immediately moved up to Portland to replace Diaz. Somehow I don't think the Sox are going to miss Diaz.
That's just real awesome work by Huntington. Nice to see he is continuing in the tradition of inept Pirate GMs such as Dave Littlefield and Cam Bonifay. In fact, I have been so impressed by the ineptitude of Huntington, he will be featured in my next article entitled "The Curious Case of Neal Huntington".
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
The Halladay Sweepstakes
This is not surprising considering the offers the Twins got or more importantly didn't get for Johan Santana, before settling on the Mets offer. However, the Blue Jays need to trade Halladay now as Buster Olney also says, because his trade value will go down after the season since teams will only have him for one season (see Santana above). The fact is that when J.P. Ricciardi made that announcement that they would look at offers for Halladay, he made his own bed. If he doesn't trade Halladay now and waits till the off season, he will be offered less and the result will be a deal that may likely end his tenure as Jays GM. Ricciardi made the bed, now he has to lay in it.
If Heyman's report is true, the GM who really needs his head examined is Omar Minaya. Now, yes the Mets this season, even with Halladay, are not going anywhere most likely. However, there are other factors to consider.
1) N ext season, you will have a healthy Reyes, Beltran and most likely a better hitting David Wright back. Put Halladay and Santana together, and you have the most dominant 1-2 punch rotation in the majors.
2) Halladay keeps the Mets fan base together. Can't stress that fact enough. Brand new ballpark that the Mets want to get revenue back for and right now, due to the Mets struggling play, there are lots of seats available on Stubhub and other ticket sites for Mets games. If the Mets don't make any deals at the deadline and wave the white flag, the Mets ticket base will dwindle for this season and next, especially with this economy. A Halladay deal tells the fans "The Mets still care and want a winning product". Mets fans will be more likely to stick with the ship.
3) Citi Field is a pitchers park. I repeat CITI FIELD IS A PITCHER'S PARK! Why not get the best pitcher in the game and use the park to your advantage?! Think about this, the Mets offense is terrible. Yet Johan Santana is 11-7. Compare that with Cliff Lee who has similar numbers on the Indians, a team with a better offense, yet he is 5-9. That's because CITI FIELD IS A PITCHER'S PARK! Duh!
4) Halladay makes the staff better. Think about it. Halladay is your #2 starter. That makes Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez and John Maine (if healthy) your backend starters. Pelfrey is not a #2 and right now he is facing other teams #2 starters. It's not a good matchup. Make him the #3 or #4 and it's a more favorable matchup.
5) I have seen enough of Niese, martinez and Parnell to say that of the three, Niese is probably the best of the bunch. He might be good, but definitely not on a level for Halladay for years to come and still hasn't cracked the Mets rotation this season, despite how mediocre its been. When Martinez played with the Mets, Keith Hernandez consistently commented (probably to the detriment of Martinez' trade value) that Martinez can not turn around on fastballs consistently with the stance he has. Third, Parnell is a work in progress. He might be good someday, but he was originally a starter in the minors who the Mets moved to the bullpen. That might be a signal. Finally, Ruben Tejada is in Double A. He is hitting for a decent average and has shown the ability to take a walk and yes he turns 20 years old on September 1st. But he doesn't have a lot of pop yet nor does he have big numbers in the steals department (8 stolen bases in ten chances).
6) Based on #5 above and how the Santana deal worked out, how can you not trade for Halladay?
Anyway, the Phillies minor league system is better than the Mets and their starting rotation numbers are terrible (#25 in the major leagues). Cole Hamels has been a disappointment, Jamie Moyer is starting to show his age, Joe Blanton is well Joe Blanton, a decent back end of the rotation guy and Rodrigo Lopez was picked up off the scrap heap. Only J.A. Happ has been very good consistently for the Phillies. Add Halladay and you're talking a legitimate chance to repeat as World Series Champs. It's a no brainer for the Phillies to add a guy who throws 200+ quality innings the past three years and in the past four years is 63-26 on a team with a middle of the row offense (Blue Jays are 7th in the AL in runs scored). Put him on the Phils, 2o wins for sure!
The sleeper team in the Halladay Sweepstakes is the Yankees. I know they are going good right now having won seven in a row and Brian Cashman has publicly stated that he won't be trading any prospects at the deadline. However, if the Phillies won't part with Drabek, if the Mets don't wake up out of their coma and Boston stands Pat, the Yankees might come in and swoop in and take Halladay for 75 cents on the dollar. They know that their back end of the rotation has struggled with Andy Pettitte, Wang and to a lesser extent Joba Chamberlain (hello Sergio Mitre). They have the minor league system to offer prospects and they can swap a good young outfielder like Brett Gardner or Melky Cabrera and have the Jays include Vernon Wells in the deal. I could see that happen.
Anyway, the time to trade Halladay is now. Ricciardi has to live up to his own words. Now will he pull the trigger or wait till he finds out he has less ammunition in the off season. Lets hope for his sake, he shoots first and asks questions later. Otherwise, others will be asking questions later.
Thursday, July 16, 2009
The Second Half of the Season Starts Today - National League Preview
NL East
The Phillies have a 6 1/2 game lead and seem to be on all cylinders having nine of their last ten. Jimmy Rollins has fix his swing and apparently awaken from his seemingly endless first half coma. That's bad news for the rest of the NL East. Throw in a healthy Ibanez, a surging Ryan Howard and good pitching from J.A. Happ and the outlook looks bad for the other NL East contenders. However, there is hope for the rest of the NL East. Cole Hamels has struggled. Brad Lidge, though now healthy, has been far from lights out. The rest of the pitching staff is so beleaguered that the Phils went out and signed Pedro "5 Innings is the Limit" Martinez. That sounds like an act of desperation and that may also say the Phils are not going to go after Roy Halladay. The Phils are a better road team (26-15) than home team (22-23) so that also bodes well for the contenders. As the Mets have shown the past two years, no lead is safe in the NL East.
The Marlins have been surging too, going back up over .500 due to a strong June and July despite a .500 record in their last ten games. The reason, the duo of Josh Johnson and Ricky Nolasco. Good pitching takes you far and great pitching even farther and lately they have been great. A healthy Hanley Ramirez also helps. Ramirez has been on fire and is hitting now .349 with a sick OPS of .979. The one weakness has been the bullpen where Matt Lindstrom struggled before going on the DL. He is due back in August and Leo Nunez and company must now hold the fort. The question will be "Will the Fish take on payroll to make a run?" Supposedly the answer is yes. We'll see.
NL Central
The Cardinals have Albert Pujols. I repeat. The Cardinals have Albert Pujols. That alone will keep the Cards in contention. Factor in a starting staff with Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainright and a rejuvenated Joel Pineiro and the Redbirds are the team to beat in the Central. St. Louis could stand a little more hitting and a little bit of bullpen help. But if Ryan Ludwick rights himself and Troy Glaus and recently acquired Mark DeRosa both can come back from injury, the Cards should be just fine. Colby Rasmus will be a future star, that's if the Cards don't trade him to Toronto for Halladay. If that happens though, the Cards now jump to the top of the class with the Dodgers.
The Brewers are the feel good story of the first half of the season. No Sabathia. No Sheets. No problem. Thanks to a terrific effort by Yovani Gallardo, and of course the stellar hitting of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, the Brewers are two games out and only two and half games out from first place. The biggest concern for the Brewers is the rest of the rotation after Gallardo. David Bush could be out a significant amount of time. Manny Parra has been relegated to the pen (rightly so with that 6.78 ERA), while Braden Looper and Jeff Suppan have struggled. For the Brewers to succeed, they will need more starting pitching to compete with the Cards. Could we see a dark horse in the Halladay sweepstakes?
The Astros can hit. It's the usual suspects - Berkman, Pence, Tejada, and Lee. But surprisingly enough, Michael Bourn has also been a very effective leadoff hitter. The problem is similar to the Brewers - pitching. When you trot out Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz regularly as part of your rotation, you are asking for trouble. Thus a 44-44 record. Yes Hampton and Ortiz have been serviceable, but their history points to a rough second half for both. Moehler just plain stinks. If the Astros can add a third starter to complement the always solid Roy Oswalt and the emerging Wandy Rodriguez, then the Minute Maid Park faithful will be happy and the Stros will be competitive.
NL West
The Dodgers are the elite of the National League. They have the best record at in the majors at 56-32 and now they have Manny Ramirez back from his suspension. The reason they were so good is they have depth in the outfield and Juan Pierre did an absolutely terrific job while Ramirez is out. The Dodgers' lineup is so good that Matt Kemp, he of the .316 batting average often hits eighth. EIGHTH! Orlando Hudson was a huge pickup on the cheap and made the Dodgers infield defense even better. Andre Ethier and Chad Billingsley are stars in the making. If the Dodgers can add one more starter to complement Billingsley and Wolf, they have a chance to win it all.
The Giants have been the surprise of the National League so far with a 49-39 record. They certainly aren't doing it with hitting as only the Padres, Cubs and Reds have scored fewer runs going into the start of the second half. The Giants have done it with the one - two punch of Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain, both of whom are 10-2 and both have an ERA of under 2.40. When your first two starters are 20-4, chances are you are going to be over .500. However, the rest of the staff is a mediocre 29-35. Jonathan Sanchez has come on of late with the no hitter and a 3.66 ERA. But his 3-8 record shows that when the Giants don't limit their opponents under three runs, outside of the terrific Pablo Sandoval, they can't hit their way out of trouble. Randy Johnson and Barry Zito have also struggled. The Giants are the team most likely to come back down to earth. The Giants can use another starter and another bat..desperately.
The Padres are brutal at 36-53. What did you expect when you don't have Jake Peavy, the rest of your pitching staff has given up the second most runs in the National League IN A PITCHER'S PARK! And you have the worst scoring offense in the major leagues with a starting outfield by all regards should be in Triple A. Ladies and Gentlemen, your San Diego Padres.
Right now, I am going to go on record saying the Phillies and Dodgers will win their divisions. I think that's a pretty safe bet. That leaves the NL Central. Somehow I think the Cards hold off the Cubs thanks to a better top of the rotation and one Albert Pujols. That leaves the wild card. Right now, nine teams are within seven games of the wild card, with five teams with 4.5 games.
Ok, let's start eliminating some teams. The Mets, the Reds and the Astros will all ultimately fall by the waste side. Too many holes in each of these teams. The Brewers simply don't have enough starting pitching to hang, so eliminate them eventually as well. The Braves have the starting pitching but have to deal with the Phillies and the Marlins. Their lack of hitting might cost them against those teams so I will rule them out. Likewise, I think the Marlins are out, because after Johnson and Nolasco, the rest of the staff is suspect (and that includes Chris Volstad who has struggled lately). I think the Braves and Marlins cancel each other out.
That leaves the Cubs, the Rockies and the Giants, the wild card leaders. I really think if the Giants don't make any moves, they will drop down to earth. I really don't like the back of their rotation. Sanchez is the key here. If he continues to pitch like he did in his no-hitter, then the Giants stand a real good chance. If he returns to his wild form, then it stands to believe that Cain and Lincecum will be hard pressed to match their 10-2 records from the first half. Brian Wilson is also not Mariano Rivera. I think the Giants fade in the second half.
The key will be if Marquis doesn't have one of his second half swoons. If Marquis continues to throw strikes and pitch as well as he has, then the Rockies are going to be difficult to beat. Plus the Rockies are as good on the road (25-22) as they are at home (23-19). They are consistent. Finally they play in the weakest of the three NL divisions. They should be able to feast on the DBacks and the Padres, plus they should start beating the Giants as well. The Rockies are my pick for the NL Wild Card.
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
Baseball Trip - Epilogue
With the win, the American League champion will have home field advantage during the World Series. Yeah, that's fair..not. That rule was enacted after the 2002 game ended in a tie because they ran out of players during an extra inning game. If I was Joe Torre, manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers, the team with the best record in baseball, I would be furious right now. Then again, it's Torre and his mismanagement of the 2002 AL roster that resulted in this "brilliant" Bud Selig idea.
As you can see from the picture with Mr. Met from our friend Scott's July 4th party, Chelle, like me, is a life long met fan. She also has a fondness for baseball, as she has traveled with me to games in San Diego, Arizona, Durham and Charlotte (or maybe it's a tolerance). The last two games were on a trip to North Carolina. She's been to many a Mets games with me over the years. She's also the world's biggest Todd Pratt fan! That last comment is an inside joke. I'll share it sometime. :-) Anyway, she's the main reason this trip happened. So honey, thank you and I love you dearly!
Originally, when I came up with this idea of the trip to Tieff, I had imagined a four day, three game trip, leaving Sunday for Pittsburgh's game Monday, then Cleveland, then Cincinnatti. Tieff called me back a few days later and on the phone, he had me write down the itinerary that it became to be. I was stunned as was my wife because Tieff is not exactly known for being Mr. Plan Ahead. Well, he liked my idea so much that he ran with it. Tieff was also responsible for the Comfort Inn Marathon we had (six days, five different Comfort Inns) and also drove in his Dodge Durango, which I have nicknamed the Big Red Machine.
As for the Comfort Inns, I want to thank all the staff at every Comfort Inn we stayed at; Pittsburgh East, Pittsburgh, Columbus, Cambridge (OH), and Greencastle, PA. The staff were incredibly friendly at all of these Comfort Inns. The rooms were clean, comfortable and the breakfast free. To Bob at the Greencastle Comfort Inn - it was an absolute pleasure talking to you. Special thanks to the clerk at the Comfort Inn Pittsburgh, our second leg of the trip. Without you, we don't find the Birdsfoot Golf Club.
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To all the friendly ushers, security, concession staff and gift shop people at Orioles Park, PNC, Progressive Field, Great American Ballpark and Nationals Park, thanks for being so kind and courteous. Tieff and I did not have one issue or problem at any of the ball parks we were at. The management at each of these ball parks should be proud of the people that work for them. I also want to throw a special kudos to the D.C. Police department. You had two very helpful and friendly police officers help us out the final day of our trip in D.C. And finally, a special thank you to the desk attendant at the Smithsonian Art Museum. She kindly gave us a map and pointed us on our way to the Air and Space Museum and Nationals Park.
To HOK and the people responsible for the ball parks in each of the cities we visited. Thanks for creating such wonderful ball parks, each of which we enjoyed immensely.
Come along for the ride. Remember, here you're always only ninety feet from home.
Monday, July 13, 2009
Day 6 - The Final Day of the Baseball Trip - Braves vs. Nationals
Since we got in so late (again), we stumbled out of bed Friday morning just in time for the continental breakfast. We were the only ones there at 9:30 in the morning. So, we headed off the D.C. for the last game of our trip, the Atlanta Braves vs. the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park (notice no sponsor - Yea!). We decided to leave early because we knew traffic in D.C. on the July 4 weekend would be crazy and we also knew that we had to find someplace to park in the city. So, we got there early and found a reasonable ($10 for the day) parking garage that was open until 3:00 am. Now where do we go?
Now, I have this knack of running into people I know over the years in places not even located in New York. This is happened on the ferry from New London to Orient Point, in the Vermont Teddy Bear Factory in Shelburne, Vermont and other places such as Penn Station at 2:00 in the morning (several times). So, as we passed through security on that Friday, I heard "Gary!". I was like what are the chances, so I ignored it. Again, I hear "Gary!". Again, I ignore it. Finally, I hear "GARY!", I look and there is my colleague, Jen Gundlach, the Vice Dean for Academic Affairs for Hofstra Law School (where I work) and a terrific person. We hugged and laughed about how we were both here. She told me she was here to visit family and friends (she used to teach at American University Law School before going to Hofstra) and I told her and her family about our trip. Her son thought it was so cool, he gave me a fist bump. Too funny!
By the way, is there any hitter with a prettier swing from either side of the plate than Chipper Jones? Seriously, the guy is just a great hitter and that comes from a great swing.
Acta replaced Detwiler in the middle of the fourth inning with Tyler Clippard (who once had a cup of coffee with the Yankees). Clippard gave up the "missile" to Escobar but struck out the next two batters to end the inning. Clippard then retired the Braves in order in the fifth. The Nats tied up the game in the bottom of the fifth as Kawakami hit Willingham with a pitch, then threw a Christian Guzman grounder back to him into center field. Kawakami's night ended as Bobby Cox brought in Brooke Logan. Logan gave up a RBI groundout to Bard before getting out of the inning.
After the nice fireworks show, we took the 30 minute walk back to our car and headed home. A long five hours plus drive awaited us, and I didn't get back into my house till about 4:30 am Saturday morning. The trip had ended but the memories will always remain. More on that in my next post.